PlayStation 3 could be delayed until next year
by Conrad Quilty-Harper 
{ Feb 18th 2006 at 7:00AM }
The North American launch of the
Playstation 3 could slip to 2007 if the Merrill Lynch report we blogged about earlier is
to be believed. The report states that as a result of Sony's design choices the PS3 is an "expensive and difficult
to manufacture product" which could have the consequence of delaying the launch until next year. The components
that seem to be causing the most trouble are the Cell processor and the Blu-Ray drive.The Cell processor is a very complex chip which means it'll be a difficult and expensive part to manufacture. Processors are often a reason for delays in the computer industry (3GHz G5 PowerMac anyone?) so it's possible the Cell could be a factor in any potential slippages for the PS3. The second problem is Blu-Ray. The standard is so new that no-one is making the drives, resulting in another expensive component. The inference is that Sony might delay the PS3 until Blu-Ray is a more established format in order to reduce their losses.
What we've got here is a waiting game. The longer Sony waits to launch the PS3, the less money it'll lose on its consoles. However, as long as the PS3 remains off the market Sony runs the risk of losing out to its competitors.
[Image credit: Dave Simmer II's blogography. Via news.com. Thanks, Dave Zatz]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
OldElvis @ Feb 18th 2006 7:18AM
The CELL processor will NOT be the gate to the release. The chips are being built by BOTH Sony and IBM, and are not being the gate to any assembly plans.
elmer @ Feb 18th 2006 7:22AM
When analysts start to express the negative sentiments of the public, its usually the turning point of a major catastrophe or that they're going over the top wrong.
As we heard just last week, IBM is getting decent enough yields off the cell processor.
By making a core redundant, Sony has taken much bigger steps to improve the short term yields than Microsoft has with its chips (this might also be applied to the PS3 GPU).
By manufacturing at 65 nm from the get go, Sony has taken much bigger steps to lower the long term costs of the CPU than Microsoft.
Do not forget, that Sony's chips (RAM excluded) appear to take less than 10% more total silicon than MS's (234 + 300 = 534 million transistors Vs. 165 + 335 = 500million transistors).
Performance differences appear to be generated from the use of silicon: Microsoft has used a lot of its silicon to improve efficiency, while Sony has used the same silicon for raw power, knowing market dominance will ensure developers sqeeze every last drop of power out.
It may cost a lot for a 3rd party manufacturer to build blueray drives, but given Sony invented the technology and laid out the format, who's to say how much it will cost THEM to manufacture? Merrill Lynch? We'll see I guess
don_sf @ Feb 18th 2006 8:14AM
i hope the ps3 comes soon. but before that the psp and ps2 can keep me busy.
from xbox 360, the only game the interests me is pgr 3, which is a great game, but i can go round my friends. and ps3 probably will have games like that.
everyone knows when ever the ps3 comes out, and for ever how much (as long as its reasonable), ps3 will be the console to buy.
i wanst that interested in blu ray before, but now i realise how good the quality is. this is how the packagine for movies looks like
http://www.blu-ray.com/images/ces2006/bda_10.jpg
and ps3 game packages probably would look like that.
hd-dvd packaging is exacly the same but a darker redish colour, and instead of blu ray it says hd -dvd.
Pretty Obvious @ Feb 18th 2006 8:43AM
Bottom line is, if Sony doesnt launch this thing by Spring (which is def not happening) they can kiss any chance of retaining its number one spot here in North America.
Microsofts manufacturing problem with the 360 is just about over with and with a good head start and no major incentive on choosing the PS3 over a 360 they are in trouble.
Put it this way, In North America Sony will lose out to the 360 and in Japan it will lose out to Nintendo. They will not deliver on their hype.
JusJusJus @ Feb 18th 2006 8:58AM
Bye bye Sony!! I just saw the ball dropping past my 14th story apartment building. If they wait till '07 then they are FINISHED here in the states. MS will have had over a year to work out any hardware bugs, and the games which will be produced are going to be phenomenal.
Sony will be plauged with the same problems the 360 had at launch, extreme availability shortages, buggy hardware, and sub-par games all of which will take them another year to work out. Meanwhile MS will have cme out with more than one "killer-ap".
I am amazed that Sony is choking so much on this one. Nice knwing you guys. Have fun in Japan, thats the only place you guys stand a chance now.
Jay @ Feb 18th 2006 9:23AM
This is pretty bad, I sort of echo what the above folk have been saying.
To the average joe, the PS3 and Xbox 360 are similar (I'll say Rev too, seeing average Joe doesn't bother with HDTV they just want whats cheapest), PS3 offering only 1 obvious benefit; Blu Ray. and thats IF it kicks off. At this moment in time I think DVD is going to be champion for at least another 4 years through continuous cost reductions in production and it's massive user base that all seem perfectly content with the format. Especially with progressive scan DVD players emerging (Xbox 360 etc) and progressive digital TV; the image quality is increasing with no extra cost to the user.
Sony have a very hard time ahead of them. Most of Sony's franchises spill out onto other systems so theres no real need to buy Sony anymore. Metal Gear Solid, Resident Evil, GTA all exist on other machines. When they can play the same game, for less (on both the game and the console) they will opt for the cheapest. People always have and always will do.
I think Sony's biggest problem is itself. They're pushing too much into the media centre market. Look at the PSP, its been out for a long time now and there are no games there for it. At least no games that can stand up to the mighty kids toy; the DS. The more they seem to push towards media the less they focus on games, seemingly. And the PS3 offering to be a media centre without the computer OS is just worrying.
I am a little scared of them launching after the Revolution. That would be a painful move when theres the power console (Xbox) and the innovative one (Rev). The market will be saturated once more.
Tim @ Feb 18th 2006 9:30AM
Dont kid yourselves into thinking Xbox will win this time. While this will definitely be healthy for the american-made console, it doesn't mean the better machine will win. Somehow Sony hype and fanboys will pull through and make the foreign machine the winner. Which is stupid, because we should embrace our home console. I dont know about you, but I'm sick of all the good games coming out in Japan like 4 months ahead of time.
Go Microsoft or go home.
(Yes I'm aware of N3, but I think it should be a special case, DOA4 and others will likely have nice close release dates)
The1 @ Feb 18th 2006 9:36AM
The fact that no one wants to realize it what analyst are saying is the COST issue. I kow people on this site have PHD's in know it all-ism. However, Sony will incur heavy losses with the PS3 that they may not have realized. Even when Sony releases Blu-Ray DVD players in the Spring they are taking a loss on those as well. Think about it.
JRM @ Feb 18th 2006 9:43AM
If the Revolution takes off the way Nintendo hopes it wil, then sony (in terms of games+gameplay anyway)would actually come out with an obsolete product. Just like the N64 did with cartridges, and Atari in the 80's.
Jay @ Feb 18th 2006 9:58AM
Tim you made me laugh. so if you're american you have to love the Xbox or "go home" hahah. sorry. I'm British but I'm not here playing my Spectrum 24/7.
let me guess... you have a flag on your doorstep. you salute the TV whenever an official comes on. whenever something that slightly jeopardises your way of living you treat it like someone has just declared war?
I have; an american laptop (PowerBook), a British sound system, a German car, a Spanish acoustic guitar, an american electric guitar, a Japanese games console, a British piano... unlike you. you seemingly racist idiot.
Jason W @ Feb 18th 2006 10:03AM
I hope this PS3 delay thing is just talk (even though I dont think it is). I like having 2 or 3 consoles on the market to fight each other. This produces even better games for the consumer and cheaper hardware as well. If the PS3 gets pushed back another few months it will give MS another year at the Christmas season. I just dont think they can afford to do that. It also gives MS and Sony more time to polish their games for the head to head fight. Let the games begin.
sizcoz @ Feb 18th 2006 10:11AM
Microsoft are slowly stealing the Sony installed userbase in America and Europe, but they have yet to make any impact in Japan, which is a lucrative market, last week Gamecube even sold more than the 360 in Japan, thus resulting in the repositioning of xbox general manager Yoshihiro Maruyama.
There are differing markets to be capitalised on globally, which should allow for all 3 next-gen players to generate good revenue from their products.
Who will be the biggest winner? Only time will tell.
http://www.nintendoinfo.com
skyrous @ Feb 18th 2006 10:31AM
The Honda accord is made in ohio does that make it an American car or a Japanese car?
The Xbox 360 is made in China does that make it an American console or a Chinese?
P.S. the PS3, psp, DS, rev, and GC as well as the computer monitor, your TV, VCR, Tivo are ALL also made in china.
G @ Feb 18th 2006 11:12AM
As for sony, they are gonna get reamed on this one. The only thing the X360 is missing currently is good 'next-gen' games, and that's going to begin to change this spring.
I drool over the though of 25Gb disc as much as the next guy, but has anyone stopped to think what game could possibly require that much data? Shoot, it would take years just to code all that.
I've never been that fond of sony as a company, particularly with thier draconian copyright protections and pointless proprietary formats, and I think that slowly but surely the world is catching on to what a blundering and out-of-touch company they are. Consumers are not going to fork out $700 for a console, and as whizbang as the PS3 seems, the general public isn't going to see as bold a divide between it and the X360 to make it "worth it." Microsoft has learned their lesson from the Xbox VERY well, and they will not make the same mistakes again.
frankie @ Feb 18th 2006 11:19AM
jay.
you should buy an xbox 360. i'm also not sure why you immediately assumed that the guy that liked xboxes was a racist?
i think you're a little girl.
Captain Obvious @ Feb 18th 2006 11:19AM
Sony is being ambitious, which may be their undoing. They have to get the product out this year, but at what cost? It's going to be a few years before they recover any money of this project. And Sony itself isn't in the greatest financial state right now.
If they miss 2006, look for Microsoft and Nintendo to dominate this game generation.
kev @ Feb 18th 2006 11:26AM
The Xbox 360 is made in China does that make it an American console or a Chinese?
Dear skyrous, the only reason that the 360 is made in China is because of cheap labor, which still makes it American.
Icarus @ Feb 18th 2006 11:29AM
i believe that the idea of people buying a ps3 for the blu-ray drive is pretty stupid. HD tv's haven't had enough market penetration for blu-ray to be a big factor. Also, a regular dvd played on a progessive scan dvd player is more than enough for most people who do have HDTV's. I just dont see blu-ray taking off...at least for the forseeable future. Second, part of the reason that the original playstation beat the sega saturn was because it was so much easier to develop for. The success of the original carried over to playstation 2 which was much more difficult to develop for than its competitors. I think Sony got lucky with playstation 2 partly because they launched earlier than everyone else. The playstation brand is what helped it beat dreamcast. This time with playstation 3 they're launching after xbox 360. So they have no headstart this time. Also, from what we've been hearing from developers, it isn't much better graphics-wise than the 360. I think that Sony has a good chance of losing the battle this generation. I firmly believe that if xbox 360 is cheaper and remains cheaper than playstation 3, the 360 will win the battle for North America. Japanese developers won't ignore 360 if it has a large installed base in America. They're in the business of making money and they know that their games do well here. The 360 will start having alot more Japanese games in a couple of years. If Ninendo keeps releasing these quirky games that the Japanese love so much, they should be able to win Japan or at least remain very competitive.
whiteguysamurai @ Feb 18th 2006 11:33AM
In the words of nelson muntz..
"HA HA!"
Cdaghostie @ Feb 18th 2006 12:06PM
every day sony waits they lose money and they quicker they release the more the lose either way they lose money either by people buying a 360 or the parts costing too much.
I did think PS3 was supposed to kick off Blu-Ray. Although let me say PSP started UMD which is a slow high data format. Hollywood has already slowed down UMD production does this mean the Blu-Ray will get the same?
My guess is Sony will wait till almost 360 release date for release.
Sony is making me less and less willing to pick up its console.
C. Grant @ Feb 18th 2006 12:19PM
"To a degree you are right. However, you are foolish to think that the Japanse are not a nation that only supports their goods."
This argument is done.
Dominant OS in Japan? Windows. Dominant digital music player? Not Sony, Toshiba, it's Apple. The best products sell best. They drive European cars, wear American designers, etc.
Back on topic.
Yeti @ Feb 18th 2006 12:33PM
I'm sure the fact that the copy protection licensing for HD DVD and Blu-Ray being held up won't help Sony's chances of releasing the PS3 in Spring or Summer of this year:
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=29731
I do however believe the PS3 will be launched THIS year in Japan and the US. I can't see Sony giving MS TWO holiday seasons to move product in the US. Also the Revolution should be out so I'll doubt they'll let them launch in the US uncontested either. Sony is not a stupid company, they'll have something out this year for the US (although it will most likely be very scarce). In the meantime, I'll enjoy my 360 and will look forward to the competition the PS3 and rev brings to the table (which is good the gamers).
Cletus @ Feb 18th 2006 12:43PM
This news should come as no surprise. Why else is Sony so hush-hush about the PS3? If they actually had some concrete evidence that the PS3 is about finished, they would show it immediately to stop consumers from going to the 360. This is why I hate Sony...so much hype becomes so much bullshit.
Sean DL @ Feb 18th 2006 12:49PM
Hey remember when the PSP was suppose to come out the same time in America when it came out in Japan...yeah...
PS3 March 2007...yup..
Extracheeze @ Feb 18th 2006 12:50PM
Let's hope for the best for SONY though. If their PS3 project becomes available this fall (or even this year for that matter)...then it can lead to the possibility of.....A SOONER HALO 3 LAUNCH DATE!
(pure spec, feel free to trout.)
Spartacus @ Feb 18th 2006 1:14PM
I think this prediction could be very accurate. Most people in this blog who disagree with it are using this train of logic: "Sony isn't stupid, they won't let MS have another holiday season or let Nintendo come out without any competition." Have your read the news lately? Sony doesn't consider them competition. With their mindset (total arrogance), it would be BEST to release after everyone else (or at least inconsequential). They know that game consoles have a history of the last one released being the most powerful, and they are really trying to push that idea (whether it's true or not). It will also give Sony more time to develope their online service to compete with LIVE and get the costs of the components down to reasonable levels so it can compete with the 360 in price (though will still probably be more expensive). The sheer arrogance of Sony is about the only thing we know at this point, which is more than enough evidence to point to this prediction having validity. If Sony is oblivious to its competition BEING competition, it has no reason to rush a product out the doors, especially while the PS2 is one of the only products the company currently makes a profit from. They will milk the PS2 as long as they can, then, when it can be milked no more, they will launch their new console as by that time the loss per console will be easier to absorb.
Sony will wait because they underestimate the competition (actually they overestimate themselves) and because they aren't in a financial situation to release the PS3 yet. If they launch the PS3 now, it could break them financially. On the other hand, if they wait too long that might happen anyway...
guy @ Feb 18th 2006 1:42PM
how many "sony is doomed" news do you really need per week. it is like a permanent job for sony haters to bash sony now.
anonymous coward @ Feb 18th 2006 1:48PM
This is complete nonsense.
First, the Cell taped out in November 2004 and furthermore, they have a redundant core to enhance manufacturing yeilds. 65nm is tricky, but they should be able to make a few million this year w/o problem. They can't do any worse than Microsoft's launch.
As to the Blu-ray drive, quite simply *they exist already in Japan*. The new stuff in the drive is basically (blue laser + firmware). Everything else is standard issue. And the blue lasers exist.
Probably the only substantial part of the PS3 that isn't finalized is the copy-protection BS (AACS), but they're hashing out over the next few weeks (i.e. not the next 12 months).
And firmware can be updated after the machines are built anyway.
This delay claim is meritless. It'll launch this year, and the only people who believe otherwise are the analysts (who have an abysmal record with respect to this industry) and the MS zealots.
Extracheeze @ Feb 18th 2006 2:09PM
Anonymous coward,
perhaps you can clarify this for me. when you said the blue lasers were alreayd available in japan, did you mean the disc drive units themselves? correct me if i'm wrong, but the drives themselves arn't availabe until later this year right?
i am aware of the completion of the blu-ray drive by samsung, but that mostly applies to just the underlying hardware. i'm not sure if the drive itself is ready for applications.
jeff escuadro @ Feb 18th 2006 2:15PM
bottom line: all of the comments -> pro or con or hype for the ps3 just means that y'all want one regardless of price. sony wants this to happen. when the xbox 360 came out people camped out overnight at best buy & etc... in the freezing cold, skipped work, or paid $800 or $1000+ on ebay. The same frenzy will come for the ps3. I wiill wait for the psa b/c i want the games and a blue ray player in one. I too will be a part of the frenzy. nuff said and y'all take care.
Lone Starr @ Feb 18th 2006 2:17PM
If Sony waits too long, consumers who only buy one system (and who don't want to wait for awhile) will be more inclined to buy either the Xbox 360 or the Revolution. But is the size of this group large enough to make a difference?
epobirs @ Feb 18th 2006 2:32PM
Icarus, year on year growth for HDTV displays is well on its way to making it the dominant category in new display sales. It may reach that goal this year: http://www.hdbeat.com/2006/02/13/most-of-the-televisions-sold-in-2006-hdtvs/
The installed base is quite substantial and growing repidly. The availability of content on disc at retail will only serve to increase interest among consumers who had been waiting for such to complete the package. As well the cost of entry continues to drop enticing yet more consumers who will have never really seen a proper demo until the disc formats enter the market. Many of the current instore demos do a lousy job of conveying HD quality, especially when they frequently rely on upconverted DVD content.
Also, if you don't believe there is a major difference between upconverted DVD content and true native HD video, you either haven;t seen the real thing or are visually impaired. (I mention this because I once encountered a person who tried to argue that widescreen monitors were a rip-off. It eventually came out that he has a condition that gives him a narrow field of vision and felt that if he couldn't enjoy widescreen then why should anyone else?)Upconverting cannot restore data that was eliminated in creating the NTSC/PAL master. It's somewhat like creating an audio CD from MP3 files. The quality will be constrained by the bit rate of the source file. 320k files will do a much better job of recreating the original CD. Of course, the Red Book CD audio standard is yet another example. CD audio is late 70s high tech and can be greatly improved upon by just minor improvements to the bit depth and sample rate. Humans are less sensitive to audio quality than visual quality, making it hard for the SACD and DVD Audio formats to go mainstream. But HDTV quality is far more easily perceived.
Although it will be many years before HD displays are in every home they are reaching the critical saturation point to make devices and services dependent on HD viable. Not everybody could justify buying an Xbox or PS2 at their $299 launch prices but that didn't prevent those who could afford one, either through affluence or strong enough desire to justify sacrifing other expenditures, from buying enough units to establish them as viable platforms for publishing software. This allowed the products to thrive and eventually drop to prices more accessable to those with lower incomes and/or level of desire.
The fact of the PS2's massive success is a serious argument against difficulty of programming being the primary failing of the Saturn. In fact, a lot of operations needed for 2D oriented games were much better supported on the Saturn, although Sega underestimated how rapid the shift to 3D games becoming the strongest seller would occur. What made a far bigger difference in grabbing marketshare for Sony was the excellent job they did of exploiting the CD-ROM format to offer a far better business model to publishers and retailers. Sega couldn't match this because they lacked their own CD manufacturing facilities. Once the publishers and shops were won over it wasn't long before the consumers followed the content and marketing.
So, the market is more than ripe for HD content on disc and Sony can hardly be faulted for trying to own as much of the dominant format as possible. The issue is in whether they execute well. If the PS3 is substantially lower cost than a comparable Blu-ray player it will be a major asset for the platform much as DVD playback was a major boost for the PS2 in Japan. Making up the subsidy is an exercise for Sony accountants and not a concern for consumers. Sony has been down this road before. The first PS2s sold in Japan used .25 micron chips that had horrible yields and made for horrific per console costs but they had their .18 production up and running a few months later and soon had costs under control. It set back the time to profitability of the PS2 a bit but in the long term their plans for the cost of the PS2 were fulfilled.
The biggest variable for the PS3 is the chip yields for the Cell and RSX, both for fulfilling order volume and cost per console. It is very unlikely that there is anything happening that wasn't covered by a spreadsheet created by an accountant in Sony HQ over a year ago. Insufficient chip availability could delay the launch but I very much doubt there is anything happening in terms of cost that hasn't been known within Sony for a several years.
Extracheeze @ Feb 18th 2006 2:53PM
do you believe that a larger disc format is that necessary for gaming?
i would understand an add-on later or perhaps even a stand-alone player from SONY, but isn't "forcing" it into their new console a bit ambitious?
Kazriko @ Feb 18th 2006 3:00PM
It's almost embarrasing how some of these firms just fail to do their homework before releasing reports like this. There was an article not too long ago from IBM where they stated that the yield was coming together much better than expected and that any delays in the PS3 would not be due to their part, while this article is claming the exact opposite.
The idea that the chip would cost that much is ludicrous as well. Similarly die-sized processors go for much less than that at RETAIL, so the wholesale price for the Cell is likely far less than Lynch is predicting. Really, the two biggest unknowns in the PS3 are the RSX and the Bluray drive. Sony is cutting the cost of the bluray drive with respect to other commercial Bluray players by running all of the decoder and BDJava code off the Cell chip. In addition, they've been making similar drives and selling them in Japan for several years now, so they probably have the design and cost down better than most first generation optical drives.
anonymous coward @ Feb 18th 2006 3:45PM
> 31. Anonymous coward,
> perhaps you can clarify this for me. when you said
> the blue lasers were alreayd available in japan,
> did you mean the disc drive units themselves?
> correct me if i'm wrong, but the drives themselves
> arn't availabe until later this year right?
They are indeed available.
What I'm saying is that the blu-ray drives have existed for quite a while, and I believe you can buy a non-AACS blu-ray drive in Japan. I have no idea what they're used for, but they exist, and have existed for a while.
http://www.blu-ray.com/2003/
So when people say that Blu-ray drives aren't ready, they're telling a half truth. The technology is well-established. What isn't ready is the AACS copy protection standard that will be required to play commercially released movies (though it's nearly complete), and this is a software issue.
It has little to do with manufacturing, or more to the point, manufacturing costs. So when M-L says the drives will cost $350, they're utterly insane. I'd be surprised if it was 1/3 that amount.
don_sf @ Feb 18th 2006 3:47PM
well people brought ps2 because of the dvd drive.
people didnt know about dvd quality, they saw dvd drives in their local shop, and heard about it on tv adverts but didnt bother buying one. when they heard ps2 had a dvd drive, it was like 'yeess i get dvd on ma ps2', so people felt like they were getting something.
so when blu ray starts marketing, (by the way hd-dvd lol), and then ps3 says 'nex gen graphics and blu ray picture quality at your finger tips' people will think 'yeeeeeeh i get a blu ray player' so they will buy a ps3, and blu ray movies will sell because of that. i dont know if people will then see enough movie quality to carry on buying.
i dont know about u, but me and lots n lots of people did what i done. buy a ps2 for your first dvd player, buy a ps3 for your first blu ray player, the format gets more established and a cople of years later buy a nice sleek dvd player.
the same gonna happen with people this time? most probably, chances are if your gonna buy a new tv for your living room you buy a plasma/lcd with hd. so you will notice the quality.
and keep in mind, the ps3 is gonna be here for a looong time, think about the situation in 4 years time. almost all western countries have turned into digital tv, digital video recorders are very popular. you'd probably want something to record this and view this on, 50-100 gb bds could do the job nicely huh.
i hope technology never replaces things like blockbuster. i enjoy going to the shop, buying a cd and coming home and playing it. downloading of the net takes the fun out. or renting out a dvd with a pizza and friends, dam man whoz gonna bother downloading and burning?
and the other thing, if you have a dvd collection, it looks good with its nice colours and quality printing. when you wanna watch something, you just take it out n play it. i wouldnt wanna keep everything inside a hard drive, and if i burn it onto disk, im not gonna print nice covers for it. it will be a sad world if that happens. bill gates will make everything too technical.
another problem, downloading is cheaper than buying, think about the cost to make movies. you think they will generate enough cash to provide? i cant even think about how much fake stuff wil be goin on.
who dont agree with me?
SuicideNinja @ Feb 18th 2006 5:43PM
Good, I wasn't going to buy a PS3 until next year anyway. No rush. 360 and Rev first. Bluray isn't exciting and the Cell processor will need time in other applications first. Sony is probably making a mistake by banking two new expensive components in their next console.
As far as everything being made in China, that may be true, but the originating homeland of the company is where the money goes in the end. That also means jobs for that homeland and a foreign country.
Realistically though, support the console you like. For me, I don't like Sony at all, but I like some of the games that are unfortunately exclusive to the system. That's why it could be 2008 before they release the PS3 for all I care.
I would pay attention to news from the Stock Market. Where the investors are going can turn the tide of competition.
"it will be a sad world if that happens. bill gates will make everything too technical."
That is always a mistake to say. If you let technology go past you, then you are making yourself older. Besides, storing data in one place is convenient. I'm not personally keen to having discs everywhere. What they need to develop is hard drive this is more reliable.
mr nobody @ Feb 18th 2006 5:56PM
If the PS3 is to be released in 2007 - Good for me!
I cant afford a games console at the moment anyway.
It seems Sony are being bashed for focusing on getting the PS3 absolutely right before releasing it - unlike Microsoft who rushed the 360 & made a meal of it.
I just hope that in the face of all this Anti-Sony Propaganda, that Sony dont decide to call it a day after the PS3. Sega gave up didn't they!
OldElvis @ Feb 18th 2006 6:16PM
Lone Star has hit the nail on the head, Most will not purchase one system, and MS took the gamble and it paid off. Once they get their supply situation resolved, and everybody who wants one gets one,they will be off an running. Sony would most likely have to further discount their system to fend off Microsoft. Unless there is some other killer app that drives the purcahse of the PS3....
Greg @ Feb 18th 2006 6:46PM
Joystiq is a rumor mill, not news.
kizza @ Feb 18th 2006 7:26PM
It will be here in 2006. Japan=spring, Nth America=june/july, Europe=november.
Even if sony did release in 2007, at least half of their cuurent customers would adopt their new console at some point. Thats still 50million consoles sold.
Remember xbox=22million this gen & nintendo=20million. So even if sony only sold half as many ps3's than they did ps2's, that nunber is still higher than the 2 others combined.
I personally think 80-90million of ps2's owner will buy sony's new console again, & add another 50-60 million on top of that by the time ps3 comes to the end of it's cycle. Sony's customer base for PS seems to grow to insurmountable levels each time a new console is released. Fanboy moron sony bashers will try to tell you that this is based on the fact that only 12 people are buying the consoles, but they have to buy a new one every 3hours, as the failure rate is so high.
Anyone with half a functioning brain knows the truth, & have played sony's consoles enough to know they have some of the most fun games available. Sony have constantly upped the ante, to get new demographics of customers into PS & games. Games like buzz, singstar, eyetoy & such, have opened doors to a knew fanbase like whole families playing together & girls. Sony has such a diversive range of titles & products available for every type of gamer (hardcore to casual). There is simply something for everyone.
PS3 will be no different & we will all know by november, just how good the console is, & how much better hd dvd's will look. Try watching a video these days after owning dvd & getting used to the superior picture quality. This is what the transition to hd formats from standard dvd will be like. Plus you can still watch all your standard dvd's on the blu ray player.
And to all the knockers that say sony's machine is just to push blu ray, & not for games... Thats like saying the ps2 was only released to push dvd, while it did do this, look at the games available for ps2 compared to xbox or nintendo. Sony are smart enough to know that they will have limited success trying to sell a blu ray hd dvd player that looks like a foreman grille & does not have a decent array of games. If these fanboys were right & sony was uninterested in gaming, it would seem strange that they have been buying up development houses like guerilla & zipper in recent months.
m3mnoch @ Feb 18th 2006 7:29PM
joystiq is a blog. not a news site. you're looking for gamespot --> http://www.gamespot.com
m3mnoch.
someone @ Feb 18th 2006 7:48PM
Okay sony fanboys its time to take inventory: Spring Launch -undoubtedly delayed- 1080P games-not going to happen-PS Toy Story Graphics-untrue- PS2 hardrive support-?? The arrogance and lies of Sony don't deserve your loyality. I am sticking with my PC, 360, GC and Reolution(when it actually ships this year). I can't say I wont buy a PS3, I can flip it on EBay to one of the poor hype believers willing to shell out 3K, see you then.
m3mnoch @ Feb 18th 2006 7:57PM
anonymous coward:
yes. you have been able to buy a blue laser drive for a few years now. however, blu-ray != blue laser.
blu-ray has a blue laser in it, but, it also has a red laser. hd-dvd drives also have a blue laser in them. also a red laser.
what makes the blu-ray drive special (i.e. retardedly expensive) is the .85 aperture it requires. well. getting a red laser to work with the same aperture too. sony had to pull off some magic that has only been out of the laboratory for about 18 months.
hd-dvd works at the .65 aperture which is just a little smaller than the .60 standard dvd red laser aperture.
that's why you see prices on hd-dvd at $500 and blu-ray at $1000. the precision and tech for making blu-ray drives is like the difference between making regular consumer electronics and medical equipment. that's why the price premium.
everyone who buys a ps3 is going to pay for this expensive piece of equipment that won't even get used. games will be on dvd-9. blu-ray movies will go the way of the umd.
to illustrate exactly how dumb blu-ray is, i have a couple of questions for you to ask your friends and family:
1) are progressive scan standard dvd drives high definition?
2) how long has hdtv been trying to gain a foothold in the market?
answers?
1) no. most 'regular' folks don't even know dvd isn't high definition already.
2) decades. yes. plural. as in mulitple decades. note that it STILL ISN'T MAINSTREAM.
goooooooo sony!
make your console expensive because of a technology that is going to fail. brilliant!
m3mnoch.
bd @ Feb 18th 2006 8:07PM
"at least half of their cuurent customers would adopt their new console at some point"
Care to prove that, or are you just speculating?
"I personally think 80-90million of ps2's owner will buy sony's new console again, & add another 50-60 million on top of that by the time ps3 comes to the end of it's cycle. Sony's customer base for PS seems to grow to insurmountable levels each time a new console is released. "
Come on. That's like saying that the 60 million NES users were going to buy a SNES and even more, and that even more would have bought the N64. Everyone knows what happened. Your statements are ridiculously exaggerate. I might be wasting my time on explaining to you because you have "-2 stars", but i'll do you a favor and ahead:
1. PS1 was succesful for several reasons:
A. Low Price to consumers: The most expensive games for PS1 cost 50-60 dollars, and the cheapest where really cheap, while the most expensive games for N64 cost 80 dollars, and the cheapest cost 60.
B. Low costs of game production for developers: N64 had cartridges, which cost around 20 dollars for the cartridge alone, while CDs cost back then like a dollar a piece.
C. Format advantage: CDs had a lot more storage space than N64 cartridges. That with the low cost of production...
D. Easier to develop for: Sega Saturn also had a CD player, but it was a lot harder to develop for than PS1, since a lot of its games had to be written in assembly language to optimize gameplay (contrary to the optimized for C++ PS1), and even when it was relatively more powerful, its two processors were rarely used by developers, so PS1 games looked usually better than SS games.
All that gave them developer and consumer advantage, that made them get the games and the consumers on board.
2. PS2 was successful for this reasons:
A. First Cheap DVD player/Console: It was cheaper than a DVD player, so it sold like hot cakes back when the only competition, the DC lacked the ability to play DVD discs.
B. Marketing Muscle: It had much better marketing muscle than Sega, which had no money to keep marketing (or producing) the console, thanks to its lack of vision and excess of desperation seen since the 32X epoch.
C. It came a year and some before both the Xbox and the Gamecube: Since it was out so "early" (regardless of the DC), even when it took 6 years to come out after PS1, being the only cheap DVD console, it helped cement its fanbase.
D. Backwards compatibility: It helped keeping consumer loyalty, and attracting other non-PS1 users to play the games they missed.
3. PS3 - Times changing.
A. It is "late"- While it is not really late (as Microsoft fans would like to put it), especially since PS2 has still solid games coming out for it, Microsoft has decided to cut the Xbox LIFE (lol) short to get an advantage over Sony.
B. Blu-ray movies can't play on any TV: Not only do you need an HDTV, but it has to have either HDMI or DVI input in order to view movies.
C. Blu-ray is not established/unique: PS2 was in the market with a not necessarily established, but unique format. Its goal wasn't cementing DVD presence, but rather, having a selling point. This time, Blu-ray appeals only to HDTV with HDMI/DVI consumers, and that's only if they are willing to buy a non-established format.
D. Hard to develop for: Some compare it to the Saturn because of its multiple processors... regardless, the situation is not as bad as it was for Sega because the 360 has also a multi-core processor, it is Sony/PS3, and that's where the industry is moving now.
E. Price: The games will be costly, perhaps even more expensive than the 360 games (but not likely if they want to compete). The machine is costly, and while it offers a lot, not everyone thinks that way.
F. Sony is not in great shape: That's why PS3 will work as their savior or murderer, it all depends on how sony markets it, how well HUB is implemented, how many games they get out, how they take their relationship with developers, as they should keep providing tools for making development easier.
The advantages it has are:
A. High Definition movie playing: There is still a market for this, and only Universal Studios is missing for backing Blu-ray.
B. More storage space: It might be able to do some things that the 360 won't.
C. Graphics (?): If it is indeed better, all those graphics whores that have such eagle eyes that detect the graphical flaws in the 360 games not found on the PS3 (if). And maybe 1080p will still look a little better (to them?) than 1080i.
D. Brand: PlayStation and Sony are still strong brands.
E. Backwards Compatibility: It might make even some casuals give PS3 a lot of value compared to 360, especially since the PS2 installed base is huge.
F. "Future Proof": It has a lot of cutting-edge stuff mentioned above, and it is even wireless, something the 360 lacks (out of the box). How many people have their console next to their modem/PC? Few, so perhaps this "wireless out of the box" feature will make a lot more people go online, especially if HUB is well implemented.
G. Innovation: Perhaps EyeToy 2 will help PS3 be something more than just a souped up yet very expensive substitute for 360.
So as you see, PS3 has it a lot more difficult this time than PS1 and PS2.
m3mnoch @ Feb 18th 2006 8:09PM
heh. one more thing. i wonder when joystiq will put in comment filters based on stars.
i mean, i already ignore kizza's posts, but it'd be handy not even to have to scroll through them.
m3mnoch.
bd @ Feb 18th 2006 8:29PM
And I forgot: I'm not even contrasting PS3 with 360 in development ease/costs, nor with the LIVE service, the amount of must own games already announced for 360, the HD-DVD for 360 or the money backing the 360.
Hell, I'm not even mentioning the Nintendo Revolution, which is a wild card in this 'game'.
Anticrawl @ Feb 18th 2006 8:57PM
Haha, I'm not quite sure who said it. But you are dead wrong about the Playstation brand causing the Dreamcast to fail. Sure the impinding powerhouse had somewhat a slight affect on the fall of the dreamcast. It was poor marketing decisions and lack of units in stores that caused them to fail. If they could have supplied the outragious demand for their console before the ps2 came out then they would have surely secured a strong foothold in the current generation of gaming. It was a perfect console for their tastes in Japan, to bad it wasn't on shelves. People hunted for it for months, then gave up and decided to save and wait for the new Playstation that was being hyped up and coming out soon.
I'm not going to go and say their name and long list of 3rd party support isn't the reason they dominated the current generation of gaming. But surely they had a considerable ammount of luck with their console. Even in the states, atleast a third of the ps2 buyers within the year of launch were going to buy or bought a dreamcast. But unfortunatly Sega made the exact same mistakes as they did in japan because they fired.. damn, I forget his name. In any case Sony doesn't have the advantage of being the first real console to enter the market this time, and the begining and end of this generation prove that the Sony/Playstation name alone will have little to no effect on how well the PS3 does. Just look at the companies losses over the past two years and the reasons for their success in the start of this generation.
I plan to buy all three consoles but if Sony doesn't get their act together, and lose their arrogance, and take into consideration the worries of the consumer and listen to us then I'm sure they are going to lose a lot of potential buyers. More and more I'm deciding not to buy the ps3. My psp might be my last sony "console" for a while. And for those of you who think or ever thought any games would be on next generation formats are silly silly people. Come on now, even that bastards at Microsoft had enough sense to understand the insane production and development costs of games this generation and felt tagging on any extra costs would alienate developers or cost them to much to really create an impressive cataloge of games. Not only that but I hear licensing and the protection software for the formats is going to cost a pretty penny too.
Pixels for my people,
Anticrawl
m3mnoch @ Feb 18th 2006 9:18PM
oh. bd. i meant to point you to this before.
i wrote something along the lines of the nintendo wild card thing. i think the revolution is goign to come out on top of this next generation in unit sales.
http://m3mnoch.wordpress.com/2006/02/17/nintendos-secret-strategy-games/
m3mnoch.
bd @ Feb 18th 2006 9:36PM
Don't worry m3mnoch, I do visit your blog, and yes, Nintendo's approach this time is great. Let's just hope they manage to do what the DS is doing in terms of software (and surpass it), innovate too much (not just a little), and clean that "immature" image they've gotten (but I hope this doesn't mean the dead of highly complex games, but rather ways to get more budget for making very complex single player games like Zelda).
In fact, Nintendo's approach is the best because:
1. Games are already very realistic, so adding too much horsepower will only result in high costs of console production, and high cost of game development (To quote you, "more artists = more money")
2. They are not simply "doing what works" (X360), and they aren't adding "cutting-edge" technologies like Blu-ray; rather, they are adding "cutting-edge" innovation, making the next-generation different in terms of the ways we play, while keeping the costs down (or even lowering them).
So basically, if Nintendo's approach works, they will set new standards, and I don't mean for controllers (only), but for competition too: You must not offer just "more power" if you are not offering innovative ways to game. The ammount of money your company is willing to waste (in marketing, power, etc.) is worthless compared to product differentiation.
If that happens, Microsoft might find it hard to compete regardless of the money they spend (would they even drop out?), and let's not start with what could happen to Sony.